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Creative Destruction vs Trump’s Destructive Reduction.

Creative Destruction was a term first popularised by economist Joseph Schumpeter. The premise is that innovation and technology will ensure progress on the basis of replacing old industries, markets and economic structures with new more efficient concepts. The architects who accomplish this are entrepreneurs who think outside the box, question existing systems and introduce new ways and means. Never has this been more relevant with the impending impact of AI putting us on the cusp of what many believe will be a major revolution. Some believe it will bring about comparable change to that fostered by the Industrial Revolution. Regardless this change will be led by the key leaders that Schumpeter relied upon: entrepreneurs and tech genii.

Enter Donald Trump, certainly a disrupter but only in a literal sense. The proverbial bull in the China shop. The antithesis of the dynamic innovators that Schumpeter championed. A man apparently stuck in the past. A strong proponent of returning to the ‘good old days’ of the 1890’s, his model for what the U.S. should be. Let’s call that ‘Destructive Reduction.’

Subtraction by reduction. Attacking allies. Breaking trade agreements. Withdrawing from international organisations. Renouncing treaties. Axing social benefits. Deporting immigrants. Recklessly slashing jobs within the bureaucracy. Reductions without analysis in an ill-fated attempt reduce the national debt, offset quickly by tax cuts in his ‘Big Beautiful Bill’. The man hates complexity. Give him a one pager and a burger and he’s ready to act. Rationality be damned. Right to a fault? ON and ON Don!

Admittedly AI may help him with the odd element in this quixotic attack on well, just about everything. Forgotten is that the firm foundation of growth for the past hundred years for the U.S. has been research and development. For the past fifty years and more the U.S. has spent roughly 40% of the amount spent on R & D across the entire world. It’s been a proven formula for wealth creation and economic success. So what does the Big D do? He cuts the funding for leading research institutions like Harvard. This is perverse logic but then logic had been abandoned in a flurry of executive orders with the size of the signature rivalling that of John Hancock.

I wonder who will fill the many voids created by this executioner of trust? Trump’s drift toward isolationism, based on groundless economics, creates great opportunity for none other than China. A country that quietly invests in areas that the U.S. largely chooses to ignore like Africa and South America. Areas that have been insulted by the Big D. Projections show that by 2100 there will be twelve billion people on Earth. Nine billion of those will reside in Africa or Asia. Every continent but Africa will be facing ageing populations. China has a plan. It has a much longer window than anything America conceives. China will quietly encourage the decline of the American Empire, if you can call it one. Donald has given their plan a nice boost.

The world is changing. Are we ready? These are the questions that make my novel The Noah Project a wake up call to action.

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    Every New Year is a time for reflection – a time to review the past and a time to predict the future – a time  for assessment and a gateway to change. For many career change is the most important possibility to consider. Job stability is evaporating before our eyes. Inequity in the distribution of wealth in the western world  is returning to historical norms after a century of a growing and healthy middle class. So maybe this really is the time to consider becoming an entrepreneur.

    Entrepreneurship has become a hot topic and it should be. Why? Well here are a few reasons to consider. Globalization is great for consumption, not so wonderful for non-competitive labour in developed countries especially North America. Technology has accelerated the rate of change inherent in globalization making change itself the one constant we can expect in our economic future. Rigidity, structure and the status quo are the antithesis of change. We must constantly engage in a process of creative destruction, tearing down the old to renew with new and different products and approaches. The lifespan of the status quo is already much shorter as the rate of change accelerates. Stability in one’s life will depend on resilience and adaptability.

    The ability to create and manage your own career will be the most important skill you can learn.

    We are well into a New Era of Entrepreneurship. Governments have recognized this and the battle for talent is underway. Universities and Colleges around the world are introducing programs searching for the best ways to define and teach entrepreneurship. Is it economics? Is it business? Is it philosophy? Can it be taught? Must it be experienced? Everyone is searching for the formula to produce disruptors. Why? We need them to help bring about change at every level: To dig into the corners and find all the advantages that exist by opening up the global economy; To dig in the corners and create jobs in the face of comparative disadvantages because they are problem solvers and will invest locally when Big Business will run away; To challenge the status quo to bring about changes in the behemoths we call international corporations and Government. Society needs disruptors so that creates opportunity.

    But that’s not the reason to become one. Here are some personal reasons to take a long hard look at entrepreneurship: Independence; Upward mobility; Redefined security; Joie de vivre; Control and Satisfaction. Let’s face it in a 24/7 global world we are all taking risks and working long hours. Technology has us by the scrotum and is already squeezing. Why not take control of your career?

    Maybe our business schools have been working from a flawed model, focused on turning out executives rather than entrepreneurs. That is changing. Too Big to Fail is really to Big to Succeed. Big Companies rely increasingly on acquisition and outsourcing for their flexibility. Will that be enough?

    So as we approach 2014 there is much to consider. Entrepreneurship does not hold all the answers but it is moving into the forefront. Entrepreneurs are problem solvers at a time when we are generating new problems faster than ever before. Entrepreneurs act as a catalyst to stimulate the economy creating jobs out of chaos at a time when leadership is wallowing in a political quagmire.

    A New Year and a New Era – Definitely much to consider – Happy 2014 to all

     

     

  • Entrepreneurship and Globalization

    Our economy can best be characterized as fast and furious. The combination of globalization and the technological revolution ensure that the one constant in our economic lives is change. This is an environment
    well suited for entrepreneurs who by definition are flexible, adaptable and resilient, unlike big business which has become entrenched and slow to adapt. Big entities grow through acquisition increasingly depending on entrepreneurial enterprise to produce start-ups with potential to feed their growth needs.

    Small business entrepreneurs need to get in on the action. Most think that global trade opportunities accrue to the large corporations that can deal in the volumes required by manufacturing giants like China. However there are large numbers of likeminded entrepreneurs in countries like India, Malaysia and Viet Nam that want to network and connect with entrepreneurs here in North America. Entrepreneurship starts with opportunity and there are many around the world that big business will miss or ignore. Oh they will capitalize on the obvious ones like cheap labour in certain countries but it will take energy and determination common to entrepreneurs who disrupt and challenge the status quo to find the myriad of less obvious opportunities.

    ‘Everyday Entrepreneur’ encourages entrepreneurs to strike out and look for these relationships. They are there to be had. Anecdotes outline experiences in dealing off shore and give insight into different economies and some of the advantages on which entrepreneurs can capitalize.

    Praise for Everyday Entrepreneur:
    “I just finished reading [this] book and enjoyed it immensely. [Fred has] pulled together a wealth of knowledge and advice crucial to the successful entrepreneur in a highly readable fashion. It is a
    must-read for aspiring and seasoned entrepreneurs who are facing today’s complex, volatile, and uncertain world. I especially appreciate the emphasis on thinking globally and adapting proactively.
    We have seen too many examples of yesterday’s winner relying on old models to their detriment. It isn’t easy … but it is exciting and gratifying to create your own business and work to see it flourish. The summary at the end of the book should be bookmarked on every entrepreneur’s computer.”
    — Dr. Sherry Cooper, former executive VP and chief economist for BMO
    and author of three books, including The New Retirement: How it Will Change Our Future.

  • Is Entrepreneurship for you?

    Most of what the average person reads about entrepreneurship sustains the mystique. We revere the outstanding successes achieved by extreme entrepreneurs from Edison to Jobs. Reading about these giants colors our perception of entrepreneurship. We admire their achievements but consider them beyond reach. Their stories sustain misleading myths about entrepreneurship that combine to keep capable people from embracing an entrepreneurial career. Here are some of the distortions that deceive us:
    – Entrepreneurs are born and cannot be made
    – Entrepreneurs are gamblers who take reckless risks to achieve high rewards
    – Entrepreneurs work 24/7 and have little or no personal life
    – Entrepreneurs need to fail in order to succeed
    These established stereotypes derive from two specific types of entrepreneurs. First are the misfits or rebels who either cannot or will not conform; the gamblers to whom few of us can relate. Second and even more prominent are the tech entrepreneurs immersed in the world of venture capital where risk is high, failure is frequent and the rewards for success are dramatic. However Silicon Valley is not the center of the universe and these are not the definitive entrepreneurs; they are but two types of many, both removed from the traditional economy and the rock solid problem solvers that collectively form the engine that drives the economy. Those are the achievers that make things happen especially creating jobs while big business is chasing lower costs around the globe.
    Let’s set the record straight
    Entrepreneurship can be taught. It should be taught and it is being taught
    Becoming an entrepreneur is all about the mindset not the skillset. Entrepreneurs find the way to make things happen they don’t always know the way. This is a teachable philosophy, entirely appropriate in a world dominated by change which generates knowledge and new problems at a phenomenal rate. Finally after fifty years of a flawed model focused on turning out executives for large corporations, colleges and universities have turned their attention to promoting and encouraging entrepreneurship
    Entrepreneurship is not about the risk you take but the results that you achieve
    It’s a startling paradox. Too many good opportunities die prematurely because so many potential entrepreneurs are risk averse. At the same time businesses are failing because of absurd risks fostered by the idea that being an entrepreneur is nothing more than a gamble. Entrepreneurs succeed through determination not by taking unwarranted risk. Managing your risk as you embrace it is critical. Not all ideas are opportunities and every opportunity is not viable.
    Entrepreneurs need to find balance and will make mistakes and have regrets if they don’t
    Having a work ethic is critical. During your startup phase and later when you encounter bumps in the road you will work long hours with great satisfaction. But as things progress and you don’t find balance you are missing something – failing to build your team, keeping too much control or limiting your own development. Both you and your business will suffer. Never forget: you are your most valuable human resource. Balance is a subjective decision but dividing your time does not preclude you from succeeding as an entrepreneur.
    Entrepreneurs do manage their risk and avoid failure – if they fail they learn and move on
    Describing failure as an essential part of success is pure rationalization. Admittedly many entrepreneurs are motivated by the fear of failure more than the rewards of success. Avoiding failure is a powerful source of determination. We do learn from failing because we take the time to analyze it. Success is elating and it masks our faults. Entrepreneurial infallibility is another myth that leads to bad decisions and setbacks that result from forgetting the basics.
    What is an entrepreneur?
    Most of us will never reach achievements like Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg. That does not demean what we do achieve. Society needs to recognize a broad definition of entrepreneurship at every level and value entrepreneurship of every type because in a world dominated by globalization and technology the one thing that we can count on is change across every element of our economy. Resilience and adaptability are important entrepreneurial qualities that allow us to embrace the ongoing pressure for change. In the simplest terms entrepreneurs are problem solvers who consistently make things happen. They are agents of change in an era of change. They are disruptors at a time when the status quo is a moving target. Do you want to be part of the solution or part of the problem? We can all become more entrepreneurial in our beliefs, break out of prison thinking and think outside the box. The alternative is personal stagnation and uncertainty evolving from lack of job stability, declining upward mobility and the shift in income distribution toward the rich. The most important skill you can develop is the ability to create and manage your own career,
    Do understand: we can’t all be innovators but for every innovation there will be thousands of entrepreneurs finding applications for it that solve everyday problems producing jobs and independence in the mainstream economy. Being first is over rated. Doing things better and different often brings greater opportunity. Remember that coffee shops existed in London in 1650 but Starbucks found a new appeal and a great market niche for this old product that resonates in today’s economy.
    Believe in your own ability. You can establish the mindset of an entrepreneur. You can eliminate the word ‘can’t’ from your vocabulary. You can approach problems by skipping right over the question “if” it can be solved and skip directly to the question “how” it will be solved. You can find opportunity and you can analyze to make sure that opportunity is viable. All of this can be done within the context of the traditional economy and you don’t have to be a tech genius to do it. Technology is not a threat but offers a great tool for you to use. We are entering a new era of entrepreneurship which means it really should be an option for almost anyone.

  • What factors influenced me to write ‘The Noah Project’?

    There are quite a number of trends converging that I believe will significantly influence our future. Most of these increasingly appear to be irreversible. These include:

    So many factors that we see but ignore. Why?

    • .the deeply entrenched partisanship that makes the governing of America anything but optimal producing ineffective decision-making
    • the growing power of China
    • the Chinese investments in Africa and South America
    • the power struggle between the U.S. and China
    • the U.S. decision to ignore the potential of Africa
    • by 2100 the world population is projected to be 12 billion
    • 9 billion of these people will be Asian or African
    • with the exception of Africa, the world population will be aging
    • the impending expansive impact of AI
    • the impact of AI on wealth and employment
    • the destructive and unsustainable imbalance in the distribution of wealth
    • the inability of governments to deal with so many of the critical issues threatening the world as we know it
    • the possibility of power brokers in the private sector, frustrated by the impotence of government, attacking issues from overpopulation to climate change
    • the evident decline of the American empire
    • the current tariff war will be resolved -neither the U.S. or China are ready for an economic divorce
    • by 2032 one of them will be
    • much of the world will welcome the decline of American economic imperialism
    • climate change will reconfigure the most desirable places for human to live

    All of these and more help define the world as I portray it in ‘Noah’ in just seven plus years. When you read Noah, and you should, your inevitable conclusion will be that this could happen.

  • Creating a Culture of Entrepreneurial Success

    One of the premises in the introduction of my new book Everyday Entrepreneur is that I wrote it to encourage entrepreneurs of every stripe across the spectrum. Since the high tech entrepreneurs have been getting the lion’s share of the attention and encouragement from the public and investors alike, they were far from my target market. Tech innovation was the creator of venture capital, setting a precedent for high rates of return that can’t be sustained in other areas. Virtually all other types of entrepreneurs have to struggle for funding because they simply don’t meet the criteria for venture capital. Those that have attracted VC funds often flounder to the detriment of the entrepreneur because the VC gets an agreed upon return which can sap a moderately successful business.

    The Creative Destructive Lab at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto (my alma mater) is focused on extreme success with a strong emphasis on taking tech developments from gestation to dynamic success on the international stage. On the surface this seems to be exactly the area that I previously suggested didn’t need my help or encouragement as people are lined up to help in almost every area to develop these type of businesses. So why did I choose to support these high achievers by becoming a partner of the CD Lab? Well here are my reasons:

    1. I strongly support that we need to keep our brightest and best talent here in Canada – we are in the midst of a world wide competition to attract talent – success starts with keeping our own
    2. Success at this level sets a terrific example for anyone in this country that wants to become an entrepreneur and start a business at any level
    3. Both of these factors are critical for us to build a culture of entrepreneurial success to maintain a strong economy and bring in the new talent that every country is striving to attract.
    4. If in the process I can influence some of the brilliant MBAs we are graduating to circumvent the conventional and lucrative path to becoming a business executive in favour of applying their abilities to becoming entrepreneurs who solve problems, make things happen, create jobs and provide the drive that leads to success, then my time and effort will have been well spent.
    5. The very talented people who apply to the Lab are brilliant in their innovation but still need nurturing on the personal issues involved in becoming an entrepreneur, the fundamental business issues they will encounter and the overall philosophy inherent in being an entrepreneur.

    My book will out at the end of November. In the meantime I am enjoying my involvement with the Lab targeting success in a global economy which I firmly believe will centre upon a New Age of Entrepreneurship.

  • FAST and FURIOUS- The accelerator converting innovation to entrepreneurship

    Indisputable: We live in a global work space – an economy where timing is everything and competition comes from every which direction, blindsiding us, especially where Tech is concerned. There is tremendous pressure to be first out to fill a market niche and tremendous pressure on innovators around the world to become instant entrepreneurs OR to give up the lion’s share of the economic benefit of their innovation to others who can get them to market in a hurry.

    If there is a lesson from the Blackberry debacle it’s that being first gives you a head start but the pack quickly turns to finding ways to do it different and better. There is no time to rest on your laurels. Your advantage is short lived- even much less than ten years ago when Blackberry was first riding high.

    Are the expectations of the market achievable or are we simply seeing a new reality where companies come and go with a greatly reduced life expectancy. Apple did fail once. How much longer will it stay at the top this time?

    When you visit an incubator/accelerator you will often see tired young people committed to a 24/7 work ethic, working in small space shared with other start-ups focused on perfecting their innovation with little understanding of the fundamentals required to operate a business or build a foundation for a company that can last. Did Blackberry ever establish that foundation? After all it was always in a dynamic state of rapid change initially positive but for the past three years negative.

    Can humans really continue to cope with the rate of change that technology allows? Are we being forced to abandon stability in favour of short term success? Overall we find ourselves in an integrated global economy, still wrestling with the ongoing effects of the Great Recession, managed by leaders who are challenged at best, incompetent at worst, where the only sure thing is uncertainty.

    For all of these reasons becoming an entrepreneur is an important option. The economic world will place increasing value on resilience and adaptability. In the face of instability and uncertainty the most important skill we may develop will be the ability to create our own job. Big will not be better. Small and flexible will become the key to individual success.

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